History repeating itself?

A mumbler's musings

The votes have been counted, the MPs selected, the defeated Generals have resigned and the ballot boxes have been packed away until next time. But what will the next five years bring?  And what does it all mean?  And perhaps less importantly, how did it happen?

I follow the blog of the pollster Anthony Wells of YouGov and he reported that the polls prior to the election were consistently showing in England and Wales a swing from the Conservatives to Labour of about 5%.  The actual swing in England was only 1% from Conservatives to Labour and this was not uniform.  The Conservatives benefited much more from the collapse of the Liberal Democrats, than the Labour Party managed and this was the element that the pollsters missed.

But how did the pollsters miss it on such a tremendous and consistent scale?  The only conceivable answer that I can conclude is…

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